WASHINGTON — With three days remaining before Tuesday’s midterm elections, candidates across the country are mounting a final weekend push for votes as national polling shows Democrats holding an edge and early ballot tallies surge past previous midterm levels.
Over 43 million Americans cast ballots early either in person or through the mail as of five days before Election Day, according to an Associated Press analysis. That mark represents an increase of nearly 10 million ballots compared to the identical point in the 2022 midterm elections, with substantial spikes recorded in critical battleground states.
Record turnout at early voting sites
The rise in early participation has been especially pronounced in states hosting competitive Senate contests. In Texas, early voting surpassed 6.3 million ballots by Wednesday, marking a 50 percent leap from 4.2 million during the comparable timeframe in 2022, the AP reported. Georgia voters had cast more than 2.5 million ballots by Friday morning, topping the 2.3 million logged across the entire 2022 early voting window, according to Al Jazeera.
Early participation also expanded by more than 30 percent in Kansas, Maine, Michigan and North Carolina, the AP analysis showed. Analysts emphasize, however, that early numbers do not predict final outcomes because party registration does not determine individual choices, and Republicans traditionally show higher turnout on Election Day itself. A Pew Research survey following the 2024 elections revealed that nearly 40 percent of registered Republicans voted in person on Election Day, compared to 28 percent of registered Democrats, Time reported.
Democrats nonetheless hold an advantage in nationwide generic polling. RealClearPolling’s national congressional average showed Democrats leading Republicans 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent. Additionally, a survey released Thursday by The Economist and YouGov found 44 percent of registered voters expected Democrats to secure the House of Representatives, while 31 percent anticipated Republican control. Expectations for the Senate were narrower, with 39 percent predicting a Democratic majority and 36 percent expecting Republicans to retain power.
High-stakes Senate battlegrounds
Political analysts say the gap between the chambers could yield split results. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Al Jazeera that generic polling indicates the House is heavily favored to switch control, while the Senate outcome remains far more uncertain.
In Alaska, one of seven toss-up Senate races expected to decide the upper chamber’s majority, Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan faces Democratic challenger Mary Peltola amid controversy over another candidate on the ballot sharing the senator’s name. The Department of Justice has issued grand jury subpoenas following reports that Democratic operatives recruited an independent candidate named Dan Sullivan. Peltola disputed claims of involvement, stating she was unaware of any recruitment efforts and was “not interested in tricking voters,” PBS News reported.
Elsewhere, unexpected pressure has emerged in traditionally conservative territory. An Emerson College poll found Republican Sen. Roger Marshall trailing Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor, 45 percent to 49 percent in Kansas.
Candidates stage final rallies
President Donald Trump resumed an aggressive weekend travel schedule after reversing a prior decision to cancel in-person stops. Following appearances in South Carolina and Florida, the White House confirmed Trump would campaign Sunday in Iowa alongside Republican Senate nominee Ashley Hinson before heading to Kansas with Marshall.
Trump warned supporters at a Florida rally against complacency, saying, “You got to vote. Bad things happen when you get too confident, right? So let’s pretend they’re one point down,” Al Jazeera reported.
Democrats also deployed high-profile surrogates. Former President Bill Clinton appeared in Mississippi, while Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown campaigned in Ohio with Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amy Acton. In Texas, Democratic Senate hopeful James Talarico focused his final push on the Houston area against Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
With voting centers opening nationwide on Tuesday morning, officials and campaigns await whether Republican Election Day turnout will counter early Democratic gains to decide control of both chambers of Congress.
