Republican leaders and campaign committees are aggressively deploying funds and high-profile surrogates into traditionally conservative territory, sounding the alarm that their majorities in Congress are under serious threat in the 2026 midterm elections.
Speaking Saturday at a conservative gathering in Texas, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton warned supporters that their state’s U.S. Senate contest serves as a vital barrier against Democratic control in Washington. Paxton is locked in a competitive race against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico.
Cruz described the contest as an unprecedented national test, arguing that the political debate has shifted radically. Rep. Darrell Issa, a California Republican who also attended the rally, warned that without a Paxton victory, President Donald Trump “probably won’t have a Republican majority” and would struggle to confirm conservative federal judges, Fox News reported.
Paxton attacked Talarico as a far-left politician, comparing him to New York Democratic Socialist figures and urging attendees to prevent what he called a dangerous realignment in Texas politics.
Defending red state turf
The urgency in Texas mirrors a wider defensive strategy across the country. Trump and Vice President JD Vance have concentrated their October travel in states the president carried comfortably in 2024, according to a schedule analysis published by The Boston Globe.
Since Oct. 1, the pair has made frequent appearances in Ohio, where Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces a challenge from former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Trump carried Ohio by 11 percentage points in 2024. Trump has also visited Texas twice this month, while Vance stumped there last week, even though Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points two years ago.
Trump has additionally campaigned in Iowa and South Carolina, both of which he won by double digits, and is scheduled to rally Monday in Mississippi to assist Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, The Boston Globe reported. GOP pollster Jon McHenry told the outlet that spending heavily in places like Mississippi “sounds like pushing a panic button.”
Millions flowing to contested districts
Financial records confirm the scale of the defensive effort. Federal Election Commission filings revealed that MAGA Inc., the main super PAC aligned with Trump, disbursed $300.5 million through Oct. 14, including $75.5 million in the first half of the month alone, CNBC reported.
Trump stated Tuesday that his overall political operation will spend more than $400 million prior to Election Day. Much of that money has flowed into two affiliated organizations: No Going Back PAC and Safety & Affordability PAC, which together have reported over $209 million in independent spending.
Filings reviewed by CNBC show large investments targeting congressional districts that were noncompetitive two years ago. Safety & Affordability PAC poured about $1.4 million into defending Republican Rep. Mike Turner in Ohio’s 10th District, a seat Turner carried by 18 points in 2024. The super PAC has also spent in House districts across Arizona, Maine, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Senate races have drawn even larger sums. No Going Back PAC has invested nearly $30 million in Michigan, $27.8 million in Ohio, $11.8 million in New Hampshire and $9.9 million in North Carolina, according to CNBC’s review.
Turnout hurdles and poll headwinds
The party’s defensive scramble unfolds against challenging national indicators. A New York Times/Siena College survey released Wednesday put Trump’s approval rating at 36 percent, with 59 percent disapproving.
The same poll showed broad dissatisfaction on economic matters, with 69 percent disapproving of Trump’s handling of the cost of living and 73 percent disapproving of his approach to gas prices. When presented with the candidates running in their local districts, voters favored Democrats by 10 points, the poll found.
GOP operatives are now heavily focused on persuading voters who backed Trump in 2024 to participate in a midterm election without him on the ballot. MAGA Inc. spent $16.2 million on Oct. 8 for voter education, with The New York Times reporting that the committee has launched over 2,200 digital advertisements across more than 20 states urging supporters to vote early.
Whether the massive cash influx and high-profile visits can stabilize endangered seats in places like Texas and Ohio remains to be seen as early voting expands nationwide.
