A high-stakes campaign for the U.S. Senate in Texas between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is effectively tied heading into the final stretch of the election, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday.
With early voting set to begin Monday, the race has emerged as one of the most competitive and expensive political fights in the nation. Talarico, an Austin state representative and former educator, is attempting to become the first Democrat elected statewide in Texas since 1994, while Paxton, the state attorney general and an ally of President Donald Trump, is battling to preserve the Republican Party’s three-decade grip on statewide offices.
Voter divisions on economy and character
According to the CBS News survey of 1,492 registered voters conducted from Oct. 8 to Oct. 16, the cost of living ranks as the top issue among Texans, with a majority saying elevated prices have harmed their finances. Talarico holds a substantial lead among voters concerned about living expenses, and respondents were more inclined to view him as possessing the appropriate character to serve in the Senate.
The CBS News poll also found that while Texas maintains a structural Republican advantage, Talarico is drawing five percent of self-identified Republicans and nine percent of voters who typically never back Democrats. Latino voters, who shifted toward Trump during the 2024 presidential contest, are largely supporting Talarico, citing inflation hardships and doubts about Paxton’s personal character, the network reported.
Paxton remains buoyed by Texas’ underlying conservative baseline. A majority of his supporters report backing him either out of party loyalty, to block Talarico, or to signal backing for Trump. The poll also found that the federal administration’s deportation policies receive broader backing in Texas than nationwide, offering Paxton an advantage among voters worried about immigration. Nearly half of surveyed voters viewed Talarico as very liberal, a perception that heavily drives support toward Paxton.
Record spending and national stakes
Advertising expenditures in the race have exceeded $500 million, making it among the priciest non-presidential elections in American history, according to figures from the ad-tracking firm AdImpact reported by the Los Angeles Times. Campaign finance filings showed billionaire Elon Musk contributed roughly $190 million to bolster Republican efforts for Paxton.
Paxton, who survived an impeachment trial in the Texas House in 2023, has also faced scrutiny regarding past scandals and controversies on the campaign trail, the Los Angeles Times reported. The newspaper noted that a recent Fox News poll found roughly half of likely voters worried Paxton was too closely linked to Trump, whose national approval rating stood at 32 percent amid economic turbulence from tariffs and foreign conflicts.
In the Rio Grande Valley along the southern border, aggressive federal immigration enforcement has sparked backlash among some business owners and working-class voters who previously backed Republicans, the Los Angeles Times reported. Several local contractors and shopkeepers said labor shortages and deportations have disrupted the regional economy, prompting talk of a protest vote against the incumbent party.
Meanwhile, Trump took to social media to criticize prominent Republicans, including Sen. John Cornyn and strategist Karl Rove, accusing them of undermining Paxton’s candidacy after Paxton defeated Cornyn in the primary contest, the Los Angeles Times noted.
What happens next
Both parties are directing their resources toward turnout operations as the voting window opens. In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott maintains an advantage over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, according to CBS News. Whether Paxton can mobilize the state’s conservative base or Talarico can sustain high enthusiasm among young, suburban and Latino voters will be tested as ballots are cast over the coming weeks.
