AUSTIN, Texas — Texas Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by just three percentage points as their race enters its final stretch, according to survey results released Friday that underscore a steadily narrowing contest in a state Republicans have governed for three decades.
The Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 969 likely voters found Abbott at 51 percent and Hinojosa at 48 percent, within the poll’s margin of error of 3.9 percentage points. Libertarian nominee Pat Dixon drew 1 percent. Abbott’s margin stood at seven points in August and four points in September, FOX 7 Austin reported.
Battle over pocketbook issues
Hinojosa, an Austin labor attorney and five-term state representative, has anchored her campaign to kitchen-table economic worries rather than traditional partisan debates. She has focused on education funding, utility shutoffs and health care access in a state with the highest uninsured rate in the country.
“My agenda is not a Democratic agenda. It’s a populist agenda,” Hinojosa told The New Yorker, adding that voters have grown exhausted by ideological disputes. Hinojosa previously served on an Austin school board and emerged as a prominent critic of Abbott’s school voucher measure, which passed last year after billionaire-backed primary challenges removed several dissenting rural Republicans.
Abbott has countered by rolling out his own platform on everyday expenses, dubbing it the “Abbott Affordability Agenda.” His campaign launched a $12 million advertising blitz targeting Hinojosa’s record on property taxes, MultiState reported. Abbott has publicly asserted that Hinojosa’s platform is “antagonistic to Texas” and predicted that voters would pull back once they examine her legislative record.
Hinojosa has firmly disputed the tax attacks, maintaining that she has never cast a vote to increase property taxes.
Spending gap and debate dispute
Republicans have held the Texas governorship since 1995, and no Democrat has captured the office since 1990. Nonpartisan analysts have taken note of the tightening contest: The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball adjusted their ratings on Oct. 1 to Lean Republican, while Pluribus News maintains a Solid Republican rating, leaving the overall consensus at Likely Republican.
Despite the tightening polls, Abbott retains a massive financial advantage. MultiState reported that Abbott spent $74.1 million between July and late September compared with $12.1 million for Hinojosa. Abbott’s campaign reserve dropped from $105.7 million at the start of 2026 to $18.2 million heading into October, while Hinojosa reported $4 million on hand.
Hinojosa has urged national party leaders to invest more heavily. Although several Latino leaders asked the Democratic Governors Association to provide $10 million to the race, the organization committed $1 million, according to The New Yorker.
Campaign tactics have also diverged over public debates. Hinojosa accepted four televised debate invitations, but Abbott has declined to participate, breaking with his decisions to debate opponents during his previous three gubernatorial bids. On Oct. 15, Hinojosa held an uncontested appearance outside the Governor’s Mansion while Abbott traveled for campaign events in East Texas.
The latest polling shows Abbott maintaining leads with white voters, men and voters without college degrees, while Hinojosa leads among Black, Latino, female and younger voters. Voters favored Abbott on handling the cost-of-living crisis by a narrow 49 percent to 47 percent margin. With early voting underway, whether Hinojosa can persuade undecided voters and suburban independents to pull off an upset will be determined on Nov. 3.
