WASHINGTON — Federal meteorologists are expected to officially designate a Super El Niño climate pattern on Thursday morning after ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific reached critical warming levels, FOX Weather reported. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center determined that sea surface temperatures during the August, September and October period averaged at least two degrees Celsius above normal for three consecutive months. The phenomenon has been active since late spring and is forecast to maintain its strength through the upcoming winter before shifting to La Niña conditions in spring 2027.
The intensifying pattern has already produced stark impacts on tropical storm activity throughout 2026. The Atlantic hurricane season recorded an unusually quiet conclusion, producing just 10 named storms and one hurricane—Hurricane Isaias, which made landfall on the Florida Panhandle in October, according to AccuWeather. AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva noted that high wind shear generated by El Niño suppressed Atlantic storm formation, marking the first time since 1925 that a single hurricane formed in the Atlantic during an entire season. In contrast, the Eastern Pacific experienced one of its busiest hurricane seasons on record due to warm ocean waters and favorable atmospheric conditions.
Impacts on Upcoming Winter Weather
With winter approaching, the Super El Niño is projected to drive major changes in weather patterns across the United States. According to NOAA’s Winter Outlook, an extended and active Pacific jet stream will direct storm systems across the southern tier of the nation, bringing wetter conditions from Southern California through the Southwest and Southeast to Florida. National Weather Service Director Ken Graham warned that while increased rain and snow could alleviate drought in some areas, excessive rainfall on dry ground increases the risk of dangerous flash floods and mudslides across southern states.
Meanwhile, government forecasts indicate that northern states are likely to experience milder-than-average winter temperatures. Across the Midwest, the northern alignment of the polar jet stream is expected to create warmer and drier conditions, though lower Great Lakes ice coverage could release stored summer heat into the surrounding air, Grist reported. For snow fans, models reviewed by The Wall Street Journal suggest above-average snowfall across parts of the Intermountain West, the Plains spanning from South Dakota to northern Texas, and swaths of the central and southern Appalachians.
Historical Parallels and Global Forecast
Meteorologists comparing this event to previous occurrences noted that it most closely resembles the Super El Niño of the 1997-1998 winter, FOX Weather reported. During that period, the climate pattern triggered a major October snowstorm from Colorado to Maine, followed by destructive flooding and ice storms across the Midwest, Southeast and Northeast in early January 1998. The only other official Super El Niño in recent history occurred during the 2015-2016 winter season.
Global impacts are also expected to be severe. Scientists cited by Grist warned that additional ocean heat could trigger extreme weather globally, including drought in the Amazon rainforest and torrential rains in the Horn of Africa. Forecasters expect the Super El Niño to peak over the next one to two months, though meteorologists say it remains uncertain how this event will ultimately compare to historical extremes as winter progresses.
