Democrat Blake Gendebien holds a narrow four-percentage-point lead over Republican Anthony Constantino in New York’s 21st Congressional District, according to a Siena Research Institute poll released Friday.
The survey of 496 likely voters showed Gendebien, a dairy farmer from Lisbon, leading Constantino, the chief executive of Sticker Mule, 46 percent to 42 percent. Independent candidate Christopher Schmidt captured 5 percent, while 8 percent of voters remained undecided. Because Gendebien’s edge falls within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points, the contest remains a statistical dead heat.
The race to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, who has represented the North Country district since 2014, has emerged as a crucial battleground for control of the House of Representatives. Stefanik replaced a three-term Democrat, former Rep. Bill Owens, a decade ago, but the area has since functioned as a reliable Republican stronghold.
Partisan Splits and Top Issues
The poll, sponsored by Siena alongside WAMC Radio, WPTZ-TV and the Albany Times Union, revealed that Gendebien’s lead relies heavily on independent voters and GOP defections. Independent respondents backed Gendebien by a 21-point margin, 51 percent to 30 percent. Gendebien also won 21 percent of Republican voters, while Constantino secured only 10 percent of Democrats. Constantino held a 10-point advantage among male voters, but Gendebien led among women by 18 points.
Voters favored Gendebien on several major issues. The Democrat held advantages of at least nine points on handling relations with Canada (52 percent to 35 percent), healthcare access (52 percent to 35 percent), supporting farmers and small businesses (53 percent to 39 percent), lowering living costs (49 percent to 40 percent) and expanding high-speed internet and cellphone access (45 percent to 36 percent). Constantino’s lone topical advantage came on addressing undocumented immigrants, leading 47 percent to 41 percent.
“By any measure, a Gendebien victory, if he can pull it off, would certainly be seen as a major Democratic upset on Republican turf,” Siena Research Institute Director Don Levy said in an analysis accompanying the results. Levy noted that Republicans outnumber Democrats 49 percent to 28 percent among likely voters in the district, and local voters favored Republican control of Congress overall by 50 percent to 45 percent.
Contrasting Campaigns
Candidate image appears to play a decisive role in the contest. Constantino carried an unfavorable rating of 52 percent against 39 percent favorable, while 58 percent of surveyed voters viewed his campaign as negative. Conversely, Gendebien registered a 46 percent favorable and 29 percent unfavorable rating, with 49 percent characterizing his campaign as positive.
Constantino’s campaign disputed the methodology of the findings. Alex DeGrasse, a senior adviser to Constantino, labeled the survey biased, arguing that Siena tilted the outcome by including a conservative write-in option without an equivalent on the political left. Constantino maintained that external ratings have failed to capture his true standing with local voters.
Gendebien framed the survey numbers as evidence that his economic platform is resonating across traditional party lines. In a campaign statement, Gendebien argued that voters were rejecting political drama in favor of candidates committed to addressing rural healthcare shortages and rising household expenses.
What Comes Next
Despite Gendebien’s advantage in the congressional matchup, the survey demonstrated strong baseline support for Republicans in the district. In the New York gubernatorial contest, Republican Bruce Blakeman led Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul among the same pool of North Country voters, 55 percent to 40 percent.
With early voting scheduled to begin across New York on Oct. 24, both operations are shifting resources toward mobilizing their respective bases ahead of the Nov. 3 general election.
