Brazil’s presidential election is going to a second round after Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, a right-wing ally of President Donald Trump, finished narrowly ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Sunday’s vote, outperforming most preelection polls.
With nearly all ballots counted, Bolsonaro had about 47% of valid votes and Lula about 45%, according to electoral court results reported by NPR and the Brazilian news site R7. That put Bolsonaro roughly 2.2 million votes ahead, but neither candidate won the majority of valid votes required to avoid a runoff.
The two will meet on Oct. 25. The winner will govern Latin America’s largest economy, a country of 214 million people, for a term that begins Jan. 5, 2027.
Polls before the vote had generally shown Lula leading the first round, and private surveys cited by Reuters had him up by about 3 percentage points. Analysts told the news agency that some Brazilians who preferred other candidates appeared to have backed Bolsonaro on Sunday as a way to vote against Lula, instead of waiting for a runoff to do so.
A rematch with a new Bolsonaro
The contest echoes 2022, when Lula defeated Bolsonaro’s father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, by about 2.1 million votes in a runoff. The elder Bolsonaro was later convicted of plotting to overturn that result and is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, his eldest son, has pledged to carry the family’s political movement forward and has campaigned on winning his father’s release.
“Brazil wants change, that’s the reading of what happened today,” Bolsonaro told reporters and a small group of supporters outside his home in Brasília on Sunday night. He called the result “the end of the Workers’ Party era,” a reference to Lula’s party.
Lula, 80, who is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term, called the outcome “unexpected” and said he had believed he could win outright. Speaking to supporters in São Paulo, he promised a fresh push: “Tomorrow we start a new campaign.”
The right also gained ground in Congress. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party was on track to hold the most seats in the lower house and added to its numbers in the Senate, Al Jazeera reported, noting that a larger conservative bloc could make it harder for Lula to govern if he wins or give Bolsonaro more room if he prevails. Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, Flávio’s stepmother, won a Senate seat in the Federal District, and his brother Carlos Bolsonaro won one in Santa Catarina state.
The US factor
Relations with Washington have hung over the race. Lula has accused the Trump administration of trying to help Bolsonaro by imposing tariffs, sanctioning Brazilian officials including a Supreme Court justice and revoking the U.S. visa of Brazil’s ambassador, the AP reported. The State Department has denied meddling in the election, NPR reported.
Trump has not formally backed either candidate. He has, however, welcomed Bolsonaro to the White House and spoken well of him in public, according to Reuters. Bolsonaro is campaigning on cutting the deficit, bringing Brazil’s foreign policy closer to Washington’s and negotiating better terms with the Trump administration, including on rare minerals. Lula has pledged to keep up social spending and to push back against what he calls U.S. pressure on Latin America.
A Bolsonaro victory would add to a string of wins by Trump-aligned candidates in the region, following recent elections in Argentina, Colombia, Honduras and Peru, the AP reported. A Lula win would likely keep Brazil at arm’s length from Washington as it deepens its relationship with China, the AP said.
Brazil has voted electronically since the 1990s, and no significant fraud has been detected under that system, according to the AP. Observers from the Organization of American States said Sunday’s voting went smoothly.
What’s next
Both campaigns now have three weeks to win over voters who backed other candidates. Writer Augusto Cury, who placed third with about 3.4 million votes, has ruled out backing either finalist, the AP reported. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who drew about 5.3 million votes between them, had already said they would stay neutral.
Some analysts say Bolsonaro may have less room to grow because many anti-Lula voters already chose him on Sunday. Political analyst Rafael Favetti told Reuters that the protest vote “foreshadows what is to come in the run-off,” Al Jazeera reported.
Preelection polls showed the two roughly tied in a head-to-head matchup. Crime, corruption, the cost of living and Brazil’s relationship with the United States are expected to dominate the final weeks of the campaign.
