Brazil will pick its next president in an Oct. 25 runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, after neither won a majority in Sunday’s first round. Here is what to know about the three-week race.
How close was the first round?
Very close. With nearly all ballots counted, Bolsonaro had 47.03% of the valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%, a lead of about 2.2 million votes, according to official results reported by the Brazilian news site R7. That is the narrowest first-round gap between the top two candidates in Brazil’s recent history, R7 reported. In 2022, Lula finished the first round about 6.2 million votes ahead of Jair Bolsonaro before narrowly defeating him in the runoff.
Preelection polls underestimated Bolsonaro’s support, according to The Guardian.
How does the runoff work?
A candidate needs more than half of the valid votes to win in the first round. When no one does, the top two advance to a second round, where whoever gets more votes wins. The new presidential term begins Jan. 5, 2027.
Who are the candidates?
Lula, 80, the left-wing Workers’ Party candidate, is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term. He was first elected in 2002, won reelection in 2006 and returned to office in 2022. NPR reported that he has pledged to keep up broad social spending and to stand firm against the Trump administration’s policies toward Latin America.
Bolsonaro, 45, a senator from the right-wing Liberal Party, has promised to shrink the deficit, crack down on criminal groups and align Brazil’s foreign policy more closely with Washington’s. He has also campaigned on freeing his father, whom Brazil’s Supreme Court sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting to overturn the 2022 election.
Where can each side find more votes?
Writer Augusto Cury, who placed third with about 3.4 million votes, has ruled out endorsing either finalist, AP reported. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, two right-leaning candidates who drew about 5.3 million votes between them, have also said they will stay neutral. Together, those three candidates won about 8.7 million votes, nearly four times Bolsonaro’s first-round lead.
NPR noted that the third-, fourth- and fifth-place finishers all came from the right, a potential pool of new support for Bolsonaro. AP reported that Lula is expected to lean on the popularity of his social programs and on his rival’s legal troubles, while Bolsonaro is expected to focus on affordability, crime and corruption. Each man faces an image problem: Multiple polls show about half of Brazilians disapprove of the Bolsonaro family and about half disapprove of Lula’s party, according to AP.
What’s at stake for the US?
Relations with Washington are on the ballot. Lula has accused the Trump administration of trying to tip the race toward Bolsonaro, AP reported, and the State Department has denied interfering, according to NPR. Bolsonaro has promised warmer ties with President Donald Trump.
The result will set the direction of Latin America’s largest economy, a country of about 214 million people. Trump-aligned candidates have won a string of recent elections in the region, and AP said a Bolsonaro victory would extend U.S. influence there, while another Lula term would keep Brazil at a distance from Washington as it builds closer ties with China.
What else changed Sunday?
The vote also showed the right’s strength beyond the presidential race. Of the 54 Senate seats on the ballot, 34 went to candidates from the right or far right, The Guardian reported. Michelle Bolsonaro, the former president’s wife, and Carlos Bolsonaro, another of his sons, both won Senate seats, and São Paulo Gov. Tarcísio de Freitas, a former infrastructure minister under Jair Bolsonaro, was reelected. A larger conservative bloc in Congress could give Flávio Bolsonaro a firmer footing if he wins.
