With polling showing a tight contest, Democrats are aiming to pull off an upset in the Kansas U.S. Senate race between Democratic challenger Rev. Adam Hamilton and Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, CNN reported.
A victory by Hamilton would halt an unprecedented 94-year Republican winning streak in the state. No Democratic candidate has won a Senate seat in Kansas since 1932, according to CNN. Since Kansas achieved statehood in 1861, only three Democrats have ever represented it in the Senate.
While Kansas voters currently have a Democratic governor, the state has long remained solidly Republican in federal legislative contests. Kansans this year have felt targeted by certain policies from Donald Trump, and competitive survey numbers have fueled Democratic hopes of turning the seat blue, CNN reported.
A historic partisan outlier
Kansas stands as the foremost outlier in an era where party control shifts frequently in many parts of the country. According to CNN, 30 of the 50 states have had Senate representation from both major political parties during the current century.
Other long streaks trail Kansas. No Republican has won a Senate seat in Hawaii since Hiram Fong was elected in 1970, following the state’s admission to the union in 1959. Wyoming and Utah have similarly not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1970. In the East, New Jersey holds the longest drought for Republicans, having last elected a GOP senator in 1972, though Republican Jeffrey Chiesa briefly held a seat by appointment in 2013, CNN reported.
Fewer split delegations nationwide
The Senate race unfolds against a broader trend toward partisan uniformity across Capitol Hill. The number of states with split Senate delegations—where each seat is held by a different political party—has plummeted to historic lows.
A 2021 Pew analysis noted that split delegations routinely numbered between 10 and 20 states following the implementation of direct Senate elections under the 17th Amendment in 1914. Today, only four states maintain split delegations: Vermont, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine.
Among those four states, only Maine has a Senate race this year, where moderate Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces a tough reelection fight against Democrat Troy Jackson, CNN reported. If Collins loses, Maine will mirror the prevailing national pattern of aligning Senate representation with presidential voting patterns. The state’s other seat is held by independent Sen. Angus King, who caucuses with Democrats.
Shifting Senate map
Similar historical patterns face challenges across other states this cycle. The last Democratic senator elected in Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, which is also the last year California elected a Republican senator, according to CNN. Meanwhile, states such as North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana, all of which had two Democratic senators within the last 25 years, are now represented entirely by Republicans.
Voting is already underway as the November election approaches. Early voting began on Monday in states including California, Maine, Nebraska, and Montana, with additional states opening early voting windows later in the week, The New Republic reported.
Whether Hamilton can translate favorable polling into a breakthrough in Kansas remains to be seen as voters cast their ballots heading toward Election Day.
