WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s public approval rating has fallen to the lowest point of his political career, according to multiple new national surveys released this week, complicating the Republican Party’s push to retain control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday showed just 31 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, marking the lowest figure across his two presidential terms. In a separate Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos survey, the president registered a 33 percent approval rating, while an NBC News poll found that 71 percent of respondents believe the United States is on the “wrong track.”
Growing Headwinds on the Generic Ballot
The slide in presidential support has mirrored broader challenges for congressional Republicans ahead of the Nov. 3 vote. In the Reuters/Ipsos survey of registered voters, Democrats held a 12-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, leading 47 percent to 35 percent. That margin widened from a seven-point edge recorded two weeks earlier. The Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll placed the Democratic lead at eight points.
Much of the shift has been driven by women voters, half of whom preferred Democratic candidates compared to 32 percent who backed Republicans, Reuters reported. In addition, 40 percent of respondents picked Democrats as better suited to manage the economy, compared to 33 percent for Republicans.
Economic Strain and Foreign Policy Fall-Out
Voter dissatisfaction has mounted amid economic pressures tied to elevated energy costs following the Feb. 28 launch of the U.S.-Israel military conflict with Iran. The Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 68 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s economic stewardship, including 37 percent of self-identified Republicans, while seven in 10 participants in the Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos poll characterized gasoline as unaffordable.
On PBS News Hour, analysts noted that the White House has attempted to deflect criticism over energy costs by escalating disputes abroad, including feuding with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over satellite communications and gas prices. Advertising tracking from AdImpact revealed that campaigns have directed $80 million toward advertising concerning Iran and fuel prices, compared with just $2 million on Russia and Ukraine, reflecting public priorities.
Internal Party Fractures and Midterm Stakes
The polling also highlights internal friction within the Republican coalition. Carrie Dann, managing editor of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, told PBS that while Trump maintains a 94 percent approval rating among MAGA-aligned Republicans, he is “barely breaking even” with traditional Republicans, nearly half of whom disapprove of his leadership.
NPR correspondent Tamara Keith reported that although Trump promised during a September Rose Garden dinner to visit 35 competitive congressional districts, he has visited fewer than a third of them, opting instead to campaign in reliably conservative territory where his appearances carry less political risk.
Republicans currently hold narrow majorities on Capitol Hill, leading 218 to 214 in the House of Representatives and 53 to 47 in the Senate. All 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats are up for election. Data aggregated by the University of California, Santa Barbara shows that governing parties have surrendered House seats in 18 of the past 20 midterm elections since 1946, with losses typically deepening when a president’s approval sits below 50 percent.
Campaign spending has surged in battlegrounds like Ohio, which AdImpact identified as the most expensive Senate race of the cycle as appointed Republican Jon Husted faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. With early voting underway, whether Republicans can turn out disaffected party members or whether Democrats will capture control of both legislative chambers will be determined on Nov. 3.
