Republican Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico are locked in a dead heat for the U.S. Senate in Texas, placing Republicans on defense in a state they have dominated for more than three decades.
Texas has not chosen a Democrat for statewide office since 1994. Yet just weeks before Election Day, public polling shows Talarico either tied with or slightly leading Paxton, the state attorney general who ousted longtime Sen. John Cornyn in the primary earlier this year, according to reports from The Guardian and the Los Angeles Times.
A Mountain of Cash and Scrutiny
With control of the Senate at stake, advertising spending has topped $500 million, making the contest one of the costliest non-presidential races in U.S. history, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Billionaire Elon Musk has contributed almost $190 million to support the Republican effort, according to federal campaign finance filings cited by the Los Angeles Times.
Paxton, a close ally of Donald Trump, entered the general election carrying a history of controversies. He survived state securities charges through a pretrial agreement that did not require an admission of guilt, and he was acquitted by the Texas Senate following a 2023 impeachment by the state House. Paxton has also faced scrutiny over alleged extramarital affairs and a 2022 incident where his then-wife reportedly helped him drive away from a process server, an encounter Paxton described as harassment.
New scrutiny surfaced recently when The Wall Street Journal reported that Paxton attended a 2024 New Year’s Eve gathering in Dubai with two men under federal indictment for healthcare fraud. One of those men had contributed $190,000 to Paxton’s political efforts. A campaign spokesperson told the Journal that Paxton was being targeted politically and that voters have continuously supported him because of his work for the state.
Headwinds and Private Doubts
Leaked audio recordings revealed Paxton telling conservative allies behind closed doors that Texas Republicans were running into difficulties. In one clip reported by The Guardian, Paxton lamented a lack of control over his operation, remarking that directions were coming from Washington. In another recording, he suggested a recent campaign convention featuring Trump produced unintended negative fallout amid voter frustration with rising fuel costs driven by the war in Iran.
Trump’s national standing has worsened, with recent polling placing his approval rating at 32 percent, the Los Angeles Times reported. In border areas like the Rio Grande Valley, strict immigration enforcement operations have alienated some business leaders and former Trump voters, according to the paper. In McAllen, several local builders and business owners expressed anger over labor shortages and community detentions, indicating they plan to back Democrats this cycle.
Trump responded to GOP anxieties on social media by placing blame on establishment figures, alleging that Cornyn and political strategist Karl Rove were actively undermining Paxton’s campaign.
An Unconventional Challenger
Democrats have rallied around Talarico, a 37-year-old state lawmaker, former classroom teacher and Presbyterian seminarian. Talarico has framed his bid around economic populist proposals combined with faith-based appeals, The Guardian reported.
Republicans have sought to brand Talarico as excessively progressive. Trump has repeatedly mocked him at rallies, while conservative critics have highlighted his past policy stances. Talarico also faced right-wing conspiracy theories during a recent weeklong hiatus from the trail, though his campaign clarified he was recovering from a severe case of the flu at home and provided date-stamped video to corroborate the explanation.
Early voting starts Monday across Texas, leaving both candidates with dwindling time to sway a tiny pool of undecided voters before ballots are tallied next month.
