JERUSALEM — Israel enters the final stretch of a fiercely contested parliamentary campaign ahead of the Oct. 27 national election, but foreign observers and analysts say the outcome is unlikely to mend the country\’s deeply damaged ties with traditional Western partners.
Surveys indicate the race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his principal challenger, former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, is too close to call. According to a poll tracker from The Economist, Netanyahu\’s right-wing Likud party and Eisenkot\’s centrist Yashar party are tied at roughly 22 seats each in the 120-seat Knesset, leaving both camps short of the 61 seats required to form a governing majority.
Shared Hawkish Positions on Palestinian Statehood
While opposition figures have focused their campaigns on government accountability, rolling back judicial changes, and establishing a state commission of inquiry into the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, the foreign policy debate remains dominated by hardline approaches. Almost all prominent candidates challenging Netanyahu firmly reject the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, Al Jazeera reported.
Eisenkot, who launched his Yashar party after leaving Netanyahu\’s war cabinet in 2024, is widely known as the architect of the military\’s Dahiyeh doctrine, which emphasizes the disproportionate use of force against civilian infrastructure during armed conflict. He has publicly ruled out granting statehood to Palestinians and has rejected forming a coalition with Arab political factions. Similar positions are held by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who co-leads the Beyachad alliance alongside centrist politician Yair Lapid.
“The dominant forces in the opposition such as Bennett, Liberman or Eisenkot represent right-wing politics,” Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at King\’s College London, told Al Jazeera. Bregman noted that the leading challengers remain unwilling to address Palestinian independence, describing the broader Israeli electorate as overwhelmingly conservative.
Growing Isolation Across Europe
The election comes amid unprecedented strain on Israel\’s diplomatic, cultural, and trade connections across Europe. Since the outbreak of war in Gaza three years ago, during which more than 74,000 Palestinians have been killed, public support across the continent has sharply declined, according to Pew Research Center polling cited by Al Jazeera. Favorable views dropped from spring 2025 to spring 2026 across major partners, including Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom.
Diplomatic friction reached new heights after Britain banned goods originating from West Bank settlements, while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin have repeatedly condemned Israeli actions in international forums. Tensions flared further on Saturday when Israeli settlers assaulted a delegation of European diplomats from Belgium, France, and Poland near the West Bank village of Taybeh, an incident that prompted widespread international outrage.
Despite mounting sanctions, arms restrictions, and International Criminal Court arrest warrants targeting Netanyahu, Israel\’s international standing is rarely debated on the campaign trail, wrote Yaakov Katz of the Middle East American Dialogue Forum in an essay for Chatham House. Instead, an annual survey by the Mitvim Institute indicated that 67 percent of Israelis view the European Union as an adversary rather than an ally.
What Happens Next
Even if an anti-Netanyahu coalition successfully forms a government, foreign policy experts warn that European demands for an end to the occupation will remain unmet. Julie M. Norman, an associate fellow at Chatham House, noted that while a new administration might allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza or curb unauthorized settlement outposts, structural scrutiny of the Israeli state by European capitals is expected to persist.
With coalition math remaining precarious for both major blocs, negotiations following the vote may trigger prolonged political deadlock or another snap election, leaving key policy directions unresolved.
